The NPV Formula
Net Present Value is calculated by discounting each future cash flow back to Year 0:
Where CF_t is the cash flow at time t, and r is the discount rate.
Why IRR is Deceptive
While IRR is popular because it's expressed as a percentage, it has two major flaws:
- The Reinvestment Assumption: IRR assumes that all positive cash flows are reinvested at the same IRR rate. In reality, you might only be able to reinvest them at the much lower WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital).
- Multiple IRRs: If a project has cash outflows in later years (like a mine that needs to be cleaned up), the IRR formula can have multiple valid answers, making it useless.
Choosing the Right Discount Rate
The "Discount Rate" represents your opportunity cost. If you could invest your money in the stock market for a 10% return, your discount rate should be at least 10%. For businesses, the discount rate is usually the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital).
Investment Decision Matrix:
- • NPV > 0: Accept (Adds wealth).
- • NPV < 0: Reject (Destroys wealth).
- • IRR > Discount Rate: Accept (Exceeds hurdle).
- • IRR < Discount Rate: Reject (Fails to meet target).
Time Value of Money
The core principle of NPV is that $1 today is worth more than $1 tomorrow. This is because you can invest the dollar today and earn interest. The further in the future a cash flow is, the less it contributes to the NPV.
How to Use This Tool
1. Enter your Initial Investment (outflow).
2. Set your Discount Rate (your target return).
3. List your expected Cash Flows for each year. If a year has an expense rather than a profit, enter it as a negative number.